Kamala Harris’ Chances of Beating Donald Trump in Georgia: Recent Polls

Donald Trump is beating Kamala Harris in Georgia, according to polling—however, Harris could still secure an election victory in the battleground state.
As the Democratic nominee prepared to visit Georgia on Friday, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker showed that Trump is just one point ahead of her, on 48 percent to the Vice President’s 47 percent. Pollster Nate Silver’s average also showed Trump with a 1 point lead.
Meanwhile, RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker showed that on average, Trump is ahead by 1.7 points in the state.
Yet despite the former president’s lead, FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast currently shows that Harris is projected to win in the state in November by a margin of 0.1 points.
The forecast showed Harris has a 51 percent chance of winning in the state, while Trump has a 49 percent chance. However, Nate Silver’s forecast shows Trump has a higher chance than Harris of winning in the state.
Newsweek contacted both Trump and Harris’ campaign teams for comment.
Before Harris became the Democratic Party’s nominee for President, Trump had a comfortable lead over Biden in the state, which had voted for a Republican President every year since 1996 until 2020, when Biden won by a narrow margin.
However, since Biden ended his reelection campaign, making Harris the candidate, Trump has seen his margins dramatically decrease in Georgia, with polls now incredibly close in the Peach State.
Recent polls have shown Harris and Trump leading each other by between 1 and 3 points or tied. For example, an Emerson College poll conducted between September 15 and 18 among 975 likely voters showed Trump 2 points ahead. The previous Emerson College poll, conducted between August 25 and 28, had shown Harris 1 point ahead.
Meanwhile, an ActiVote poll of 400 likely voters in the state between August 8 and September 10 showed the two candidates tied.
Earlier polls conducted before Biden dropped out, including a survey published by Insider Advantage in July, had shown Trump as much as 10 points ahead in the state.
Both candidates are targeting the Peach State. Harris’ campaign team said she will make a stop on Friday in the Atlanta area, where she will discuss reproductive freedoms and abortion bans.
“The Vice President will highlight the stark contrast between her commitment to fight for reproductive freedom and the devastating and deadly consequences of Trump Abortion Bans,” a press release read. The event is planned for mid-afternoon on Friday.
Georgia law bans abortion after fetal cardiac activity is detected, which is usually around six weeks into a pregnancy and before many know they are pregnant. The law allows exceptions for cases of rape and incest if a police report was filed.
Harris’ speech will focus on two women, Amber Thurman and Candi Miller, who died in Georgia after experiencing complications from abortion procedures after the state’s six-week abortion ban was implemented.
Thurman passed away after waiting 20 hours for treatment in a suburban Atlanta hospital for complications from taking an abortion pill. A state medical board review concluded that her death was primarily due to the hospital’s delay in providing care. Her death was later ruled “preventable” by a state committee, which included 10 doctors, investigative outlet ProPublica reported
Miller died after opting to not seek medical attention for complications from the same type of abortion. Her family explained that she was fearful of getting help once it became evident the abortion was incomplete.
“This is exactly what we feared when Roe was struck down,” Harris said of Thurman in a statement on Tuesday. “In more than 20 states, Trump abortion bans are preventing doctors from providing basic medical care. Women are bleeding out in parking lots, turned away from emergency rooms, losing their ability to ever have children again.”
In her Friday remarks, Harris will advocate for the restoration of federal abortion rights, highlighting the two women’s deaths as examples of the harmful consequences of what she refers to as “Trump abortion bans,” the New York Times reported.
During her campaign, Harris has consistently aimed to link former President Trump to the severe medical challenges faced by women seeking abortions in states where the procedure is banned or strictly limited. Trump has taken credit for appointing the Supreme Court justices who cast the deciding votes to overturn federal abortion rights. He has also supported abortion rights being decided on a state level.
“President Trump has always supported exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother, which Georgia’s law provides. With those exceptions in place, it’s unclear why doctors did not swiftly act to protect the lives of mothers,” Karoline Leavitt, Trump campaign national press secretary, said of Thurman and Miller in a statement shared with Newsweek.
“President Trump has long been consistent in supporting the rights of states to make decisions on abortion and has been very clear that he will not sign a federal ban when he is back in the White House. President Trump also supports universal access to contraception and IVF. Contrarily, Kamala Harris and the Democrats are radically out of touch with the majority of Americans in their support for abortion up until birth and forcing taxpayers to fund it,” Leavitt added.
According to a University of Maryland poll released on September 4, almost 75 percent of Georgians, including 73 percent of Republicans and 83 percent of Democrats, oppose criminalizing abortion before fetal viability. Similarly, polling conducted last year by the advocacy group Reproductive Freedom for All, which opposes abortion restrictions, found that 72 percent of voters in the state deemed a six-week abortion ban either very or somewhat troubling.